← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXMOONMAN-31-USA
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 56.3%, flat over 24h, on a 2.6¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 40/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 4% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1519d 12h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
⚠ Single sourceSummary
If United States is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
If Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) or another US-based company launches a manned mission to the Moon first then the market resolves to Yes for the United States.