← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXNEWPOPE-70-AARB
Who will the next Pope be?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 3.6%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 2.1¢ spread.
Implied probability3.6%
Bid / ask / mid1.5¢ / 3.6¢ / 2.5¢
Spread2.1¢ (82.4%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7d+0.00pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 40/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$29
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$61 / $136
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score39.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.00
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.00pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 15764d 12h.
Time to resolve15764d 12h
Resolution sourcemanual-review
Rules risklow (15)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementExpected settlement is 0.0h after scheduled close.
Summary
If Anders Arborelius becomes the first person elected Pope before Jan 1, 2070, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules