← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXNEWPOPE-70-PPAR
Who will the next Pope be?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 5.8%, flat over 24h, on a 1.8¢ spread.
Implied probability5.8%
Bid / ask / mid4.0¢ / 5.8¢ / 4.9¢
Spread1.8¢ (36.7%)
Change 24hn/a
Change 7dn/a
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$61 / $116
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score41.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.00
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.00pt
Change 1hn/a
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 15764d 12h.
Time to resolve15764d 12h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (15)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
No price history yet.
Probability timeline
No history yet.
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sources
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementExpected settlement is 0.0h after scheduled close.
Summary
If Pietro Parolin becomes the first person elected Pope before Jan 1, 2070, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules