← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXNEXTISRAELPM-45JAN01-NBEN
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 6.0%, down 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 32 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 6633d 12h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
⚠ Single sourceSummary
If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Israel after Issuance is Naftali Bennett, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
The market resolves based on who actually assumes the office of Prime Minister, not who is elected or nominated. Acting or interim appointments count as holding the position if they formally assume the office. The person must be different from whoever held the position at market issuance - if the same person continues in office through the expiration date, all markets resolve to No. Resolution is based on official announcements from the country's legislature or government, with The New York Times as a secondary source for confirmation.