← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXNEXTSPEAKER-31-HJEF

Will Hakeem Jeffries be the next Speaker of the House?

77.0% implied · bid 74.0¢ · ask 80.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 74.0%, down 6.2pt over 24h, on a 6.0¢ spread.

Implied probability74.0%

Bid / ask / mid74.0¢ / 80.0¢ / 77.0¢

Spread6.0¢ (7.8%)

Change 24h-6.20pt

Change 7d-9.00pt

Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 20/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 18% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$1,583

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$370 / $544

Imbalance18% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score20.5 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 24 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 9.8σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean-9.80

RSI (14, hourly)23.7

Realized vol 7d1.01pt

Change 1h-7.10pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 1519d 12h.

Time to resolve1519d 12h

Resolution sourcedocumented

Rules risklow (15)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

Settlement sources

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementExpected settlement is 0.0h after scheduled close.

Summary

If Hakeem Jeffries is the first Speaker of the House after Mike Johnson, before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.