← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXNEXTSPEAKER-31-SSCA
Will Steve Scalise be the next Speaker of the House?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 1.0%, flat over 24h, on a 3.5¢ spread.
Implied probability1.0%
Bid / ask / mid0.5¢ / 4.0¢ / 2.3¢
Spread3.5¢ (155.6%)
Change 24hn/a
Change 7dn/a
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 33/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$65
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3 / $11
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score32.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.00
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.00pt
Change 1hn/a
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1519d 12h.
Time to resolve1519d 12h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (15)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
No price history yet.
Probability timeline
No history yet.
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sources
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementExpected settlement is 0.0h after scheduled close.
Summary
If Steve Scalise is the first Speaker of the House after Mike Johnson, before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules