← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXNEXTTRILLIONAIRE-33-SB

Will Steve Ballmer be the world's second trillionaire?

1.5% implied · bid 1.0¢ · ask 2.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 1.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability1.0%

Bid / ask / mid1.0¢ / 2.0¢ / 1.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (66.7%)

Change 24h+0.00pt

Change 7d-2.50pt

Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$0

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$12 / $12

Imbalance1% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score45.0 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 3.7σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean-3.75

RSI (14, hourly)0.0

Realized vol 7d0.65pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 2250d 11h.

Time to resolve2250d 11h

Resolution sourcemanual-review

Rules risklow (15)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

⚠ Single source

Settlement sources

Forbes

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementExpected settlement is 0.0h after scheduled close.

Summary

If Forbes reports that Steve Ballmer has become the second person in the world to reach a net worth of at least $1 trillion USD before Jan 1, 2033 then the market resolves to Yes.

Expanded rules

Not published.