← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXNEXTUKPRIMEMIN-35JAN01-SMAH
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 19.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 9.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 5/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 6.3σ — an unusually large move.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 2987d 12h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
⚠ Single sourceSummary
If Shabana Mahmood formally holds the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purposes of this Contract, only a subject who holds the position in a permanent, confirmed, elected, or otherwise non-acting and non-temporary capacity—as formally designated by the body or organization at which the position is held—is treated as formally holding the position; assumption of the role solely in an acting, interim, transitional, provisional, caretaker, pro tempore, or otherwise temporary capacity does not, by itself, satisfy the Payout Criterion. Andy Burnham is the holder at Issuance. A former holder who returns after Issuance is not disqualified solely on the basis of that prior service. If a person not listed here is first to formally hold the office after Issuance, every market resolves NO.