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← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXNFLCAREERPASSYDS-PMAHOMES-50000

Patrick Mahomes: 50,000+ Passing Yards

87.0% implied · bid 83.0¢ · ask 91.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 87.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 8.0¢ spread.

Implied probability87.0%
Bid / ask / mid83.0¢ / 91.0¢ / 87.0¢
Spread8.0¢ (9.2%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7d-0.50pt
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 10/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 47% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$166 / $189
Imbalance47% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score10.2 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.25
RSI (14, hourly)49.7
Realized vol 7d14.70pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 4866d 10h.

Time to resolve4866d 10h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (35)
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementExpected settlement is -168.0h after scheduled close.

Summary

If Patrick Mahomes records at least 50,000 career regular season passing yards before Patrick Mahomes or any of the Source Agencies formally announce his retirement from Pro Football, then the market resolves to Yes.

Expanded rules

The market resolves to Yes if Patrick Mahomes records at least 50,000 career regular season passing yards before he or any of the Source Agencies formally announce his retirement from Pro Football. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the NFL. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.