← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXNIREFCALL-30JAN01-YES
Will Northern Ireland confirm a reunification referendum before 2030?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 10.0%, flat over 24h, on a 7.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 15/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1161d 12h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 0-10¢ bucket has returned -60% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Summary
If Northern Ireland agrees to or announces a formal decision by the UK Secretary of State for Northern Ireland to hold a border poll on Irish reunification before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following: Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify. The following do NOT qualify: Preliminary discussions Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances Opposition party statements Leaked documents Think-tank recommendations General aspirations without specific commitment Draft legislation without approval Regional actions (unless specified) Retraction of previously announced commitments A border poll is a referendum on whether Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland. A formal order directing the poll or an unequivocal official announcement recording the Secretary of State's decision to hold it qualifies. A polling date is not required, and voting may occur after January 1, 2030. Party pledges, requests, consultations, preparations, and general statements of intent do not qualify. Statements by the Northern Ireland Executive, Irish Government, or another official do not qualify unless they officially record the Secretary of State's decision.