← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXOAIANTH-40-ANTH
Will Open AI or Anthropic IPO first?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 94.0%, down 2.0pt over 24h, on a 5.0¢ spread.
Implied probability94.0%
Bid / ask / mid94.0¢ / 99.0¢ / 96.5¢
Spread5.0¢ (5.2%)
Change 24h-2.00pt
Change 7d-1.00pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 26/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 76% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$201
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$711 / $1,584
Imbalance76% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score26.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 43 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 3.0σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-3.01
RSI (14, hourly)42.9
Realized vol 7d1.06pt
Change 1h-2.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 4806d 12h.
Time to resolve4806d 12h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (35)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sources
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementExpected settlement is 10.0h after scheduled close.
Summary
If Anthropic confirms an IPO first, before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
Not published.