← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXOAIANTH-40-OAI
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 10.0%, up 2.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability10.0%
Bid / ask / mid9.0¢ / 10.0¢ / 9.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (10.5%)
Change 24h+2.00pt
Change 7d+5.00pt
Longshot tax-60% historically (0-10¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$816
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1 / $79
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 55 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 4.0σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean4.02
RSI (14, hourly)55.3
Realized vol 7d0.85pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 4806d 12h.
Time to resolve4806d 12h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (35)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 0-10¢ bucket has returned -60% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sources
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementExpected settlement is 10.0h after scheduled close.
Summary
If OpenAI confirms an IPO first, before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
Not published.