← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXPERFORMBONDSONG-35-OAS
Who will perform the next James Bond Song?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 45.0%, up 17.5pt over 24h, on a 43.0¢ spread.
Implied probability45.0%
Bid / ask / mid4.0¢ / 47.0¢ / 25.5¢
Spread43.0¢ (168.6%)
Change 24h+17.50pt
Change 7d+17.50pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 59 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 8.3σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean8.30
RSI (14, hourly)59.3
Realized vol 7d5.00pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 2980d 11h.
Time to resolve2980d 11h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (15)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sources
- performer
- official production company or studio releasing song
- official credits of the release
- the Recording Industry Association of America
- Billboard
- Rolling Stone
- Variety
- The Hollywood Reporter
- Deadline
- The New York Times
- the Associated Press
- Bloomberg News
- Reuters
- official websites or social media accounts of the production
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementExpected settlement is 0.0h after scheduled close.
Summary
If Oasis performs the James Bond film theme, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
Not published.