← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXPERFORMROLE007-FELIX-JOH
Will John Hoogenakker perform as Felix Leiter in the next James Bond film?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 12.0%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 8.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 10/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 8.3σ — an unusually large move.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1153d 23h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
⚠ Single sourceSummary
If John Hoogenakker performs/ is announced as Felix Leiter in the next James Bond film, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
For the purposes of this Contract, John Hoogenakker satisfies the Payout Criterion if either: Official Announcement: John Hoogenakker is officially announced, confirmed, or publicly credited as cast to perform Felix Leiter in the next James Bond film, regardless of whether the performance ultimately occurs; OR Actual Performance: John Hoogenakker appears on stage, on screen, or in recorded content as Felix Leiter in any official performance, showing, or release of the next James Bond film. Additional clarification(s): If the next James Bond film is entirely cancelled or abandoned before any official performance or release occurs, but John Hoogenakker was officially announced in Felix Leiter, the Contract will resolve to “Yes.” If multiple people are announced for Felix Leiter (e.g., alternating cast, dual casting), and John Hoogenakker is among them, the Contract will resolve to “Yes.” b The Contract may resolve to “No” prior to the Expiration Date if: (a) the next James Bond film is cancelled or completes its run without John Hoogenakker being announced or performing in Felix Leiter, or (b) another person is officially announced as the sole exclusive performer for Felix Leiter.