← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXPERFORMROLE007-FLO
Will Florence Pugh perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 13.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 39.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 65 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.3σ — a mild deviation.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1155d 2h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
⚠ Single sourceSummary
If Florence Pugh performs/ is announced as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
For the purposes of this Contract, Florence Pugh satisfies the Payout Criterion if either: Official Announcement: Florence Pugh is officially announced, confirmed, or publicly credited as cast to perform a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film, regardless of whether the performance ultimately occurs; OR Actual Performance: Florence Pugh appears on stage, on screen, or in recorded content as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in any official performance, showing, or release of the next James Bond film. Additional clarification(s): If the next James Bond film is entirely cancelled or abandoned before any official performance or release occurs, but Florence Pugh was officially announced in a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl”, the Contract will resolve to “Yes.” If multiple people are announced for a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” (e.g., alternating cast, dual casting), and Florence Pugh is among them, the Contract will resolve to “Yes.” b The Contract may resolve to “No” prior to the Expiration Date if: (a) the next James Bond film is cancelled or completes its run without Florence Pugh being announced or performing in a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl”, or (b) another person is officially announced as the sole exclusive performer for a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl”.