← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXPERFORMROLE007-M-IDR
Will Idris Elba perform as M in the next James Bond film?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 14.0%, up 2.0pt over 24h, on a 6.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 20/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 60 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 3.7σ — an unusually large move.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1155d 2h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
⚠ Single sourceSummary
If Idris Elba performs/ is announced as M in the next James Bond film, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
For the purposes of this Contract, Idris Elba satisfies the Payout Criterion if either: Official Announcement: Idris Elba is officially announced, confirmed, or publicly credited as cast to perform M in the next James Bond film, regardless of whether the performance ultimately occurs; OR Actual Performance: Idris Elba appears on stage, on screen, or in recorded content as M in any official performance, showing, or release of the next James Bond film. Additional clarification(s): If the next James Bond film is entirely cancelled or abandoned before any official performance or release occurs, but Idris Elba was officially announced in M, the Contract will resolve to “Yes.” If multiple people are announced for M (e.g., alternating cast, dual casting), and Idris Elba is among them, the Contract will resolve to “Yes.” b The Contract may resolve to “No” prior to the Expiration Date if: (a) the next James Bond film is cancelled or completes its run without Idris Elba being announced or performing in M, or (b) another person is officially announced as the sole exclusive performer for M.