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← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXPERFORMROLE007-M-OLI

Will Olivia Colman perform as M in the next James Bond film?

10.0% implied · bid 6.0¢ · ask 14.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 14.0%, flat over 24h, on a 8.0¢ spread.

Implied probability14.0%
Bid / ask / mid6.0¢ / 14.0¢ / 10.0¢
Spread8.0¢ (80.0%)
Change 24hn/a
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 10/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$6 / $16
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score10.0 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.00
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.00pt
Change 1hn/a

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 1155d 2h.

Time to resolve1155d 2h
Resolution sourcemanual-review
Rules riskmedium (35)
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

No price history yet.

Probability timeline

No history yet.

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

⚠ Single source
Settlement sources
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementExpected settlement is -8746.0h after scheduled close.

Summary

If Olivia Colman performs/ is announced as M in the next James Bond film, then the market resolves to Yes.

Expanded rules

For the purposes of this Contract, Olivia Colman satisfies the Payout Criterion if either: Official Announcement: Olivia Colman is officially announced, confirmed, or publicly credited as cast to perform M in the next James Bond film, regardless of whether the performance ultimately occurs; OR Actual Performance: Olivia Colman appears on stage, on screen, or in recorded content as M in any official performance, showing, or release of the next James Bond film. Additional clarification(s): If the next James Bond film is entirely cancelled or abandoned before any official performance or release occurs, but Olivia Colman was officially announced in M, the Contract will resolve to “Yes.” If multiple people are announced for M (e.g., alternating cast, dual casting), and Olivia Colman is among them, the Contract will resolve to “Yes.” b The Contract may resolve to “No” prior to the Expiration Date if: (a) the next James Bond film is cancelled or completes its run without Olivia Colman being announced or performing in M, or (b) another person is officially announced as the sole exclusive performer for M.