← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXPERFORMROLE007-MAR
Will Margaret Qualley perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 94.0%, flat over 24h, on a 76.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 35% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1155d 2h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
⚠ Single sourceSummary
If Margaret Qualley performs/ is announced as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
For the purposes of this Contract, Margaret Qualley satisfies the Payout Criterion if either: Official Announcement: Margaret Qualley is officially announced, confirmed, or publicly credited as cast to perform a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film, regardless of whether the performance ultimately occurs; OR Actual Performance: Margaret Qualley appears on stage, on screen, or in recorded content as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in any official performance, showing, or release of the next James Bond film. Additional clarification(s): If the next James Bond film is entirely cancelled or abandoned before any official performance or release occurs, but Margaret Qualley was officially announced in a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl”, the Contract will resolve to “Yes.” If multiple people are announced for a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” (e.g., alternating cast, dual casting), and Margaret Qualley is among them, the Contract will resolve to “Yes.” b The Contract may resolve to “No” prior to the Expiration Date if: (a) the next James Bond film is cancelled or completes its run without Margaret Qualley being announced or performing in a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl”, or (b) another person is officially announced as the sole exclusive performer for a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl”.