← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXPERFORMROLE007-VILLAIN-PET
Will Peter Dinklage perform as Villain in the next James Bond film?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 15.0%, up 1.5pt over 24h, on a 9.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 5/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 52 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1155d 2h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
⚠ Single sourceSummary
If Peter Dinklage performs/ is announced as The Villain in the next James Bond film, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
For the purposes of this Contract, Peter Dinklage satisfies the Payout Criterion if either: Official Announcement: Peter Dinklage is officially announced, confirmed, or publicly credited as cast to perform The Villain in the next James Bond film, regardless of whether the performance ultimately occurs; OR Actual Performance: Peter Dinklage appears on stage, on screen, or in recorded content as The Villain in any official performance, showing, or release of the next James Bond film. Additional clarification(s): If the next James Bond film is entirely cancelled or abandoned before any official performance or release occurs, but Peter Dinklage was officially announced in The Villain, the Contract will resolve to “Yes.” If multiple people are announced for The Villain (e.g., alternating cast, dual casting), and Peter Dinklage is among them, the Contract will resolve to “Yes.” b The Contract may resolve to “No” prior to the Expiration Date if: (a) the next James Bond film is cancelled or completes its run without Peter Dinklage being announced or performing in The Villain, or (b) another person is officially announced as the sole exclusive performer for The Villain.