← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXPERSONPRESMAM-45
Will Zohran Mamdani become President of the United States before Jan 22, 2045?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 12.0%, flat over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability12.0%
Bid / ask / mid12.0¢ / 15.0¢ / 13.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (22.2%)
Change 24hn/a
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$115
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$32 / $185
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.00
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.00pt
Change 1hn/a
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 6654d 12h.
Time to resolve6654d 12h
Resolution sourcemanual-review
Rules risklow (15)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
No price history yet.
Probability timeline
No history yet.
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
⚠ Single sourceSettlement sources
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementExpected settlement is -168.0h after scheduled close.
Summary
If Zohran Mamdani becomes President of the United States before Jan 22, 2045, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
Not published.