← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXPOPCHANGESTATE10-35

Will any U.S. state experience a population decrease of at least 10% between 2025 and 2035?

19.5% implied · bid 18.0¢ · ask 21.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 18.0%, flat over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.

Implied probability18.0%

Bid / ask / mid18.0¢ / 21.0¢ / 19.5¢

Spread3.0¢ (15.4%)

Change 24hn/a

Change 7dn/a

Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$0

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$66 / $51

Imbalance2% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score35.1 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.00

RSI (14, hourly)50.0

Realized vol 7d0.00pt

Change 1hn/a

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 3344d 10h.

Time to resolve3344d 10h

Resolution sourcedocumented

Rules risklow (15)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

No price history yet.

Probability timeline

No history yet.

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

Settlement sources

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementExpected settlement is -8760.0h after scheduled close.

Summary

If any U.S. state experiences a population decrease of at least 10% between 2025 and 2035, then the market resolves to Yes.