← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXPRESPARTY-2032-R

Will the Republican party win the Presidency in 2032?

51.0% implied · bid 49.0¢ · ask 53.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 53.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 4.0¢ spread.

Implied probability53.0%

Bid / ask / mid49.0¢ / 53.0¢ / 51.0¢

Spread4.0¢ (7.8%)

Change 24h+0.00pt

Change 7d+0.00pt

Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 33/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 28% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$4

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,441 / $2,768

Imbalance28% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score32.6 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.2σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean2.19

RSI (14, hourly)50.0

Realized vol 7d1.15pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 2270d 12h.

Time to resolve2270d 12h

Resolution sourcemanual-review

Rules risklow (15)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

⚠ Single source

Settlement sources

Office of the Presidency

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementExpected settlement is -6839.0h after scheduled close.

Summary

If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2033, then the market resolves to Yes.

Expanded rules

Not published.