← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXROBOTMARS-35
Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 47.6%, down 3.3pt over 24h, on a 6.5¢ spread.
Implied probability47.6%
Bid / ask / mid47.4¢ / 53.9¢ / 50.6¢
Spread6.5¢ (12.8%)
Change 24h-3.25pt
Change 7d+0.00pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 18/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$28
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$264 / $320
Imbalance2% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score17.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.7σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.70
RSI (14, hourly)49.9
Realized vol 7d2.33pt
Change 1h+3.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 2980d 12h.
Time to resolve2980d 12h
Resolution sourcemanual-review
Rules risklow (15)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
⚠ Single sourceSettlement sources
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementExpected settlement is 0.0h after scheduled close.
Summary
If a humanoid robot walks on Mars before a human does before 2035, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
Not published.