← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXSOCIALSECURITYDEPLETE-33-33JAN01
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the OASI Trust Fund reserves are depleted such that full scheduled Social Security retirement and survivors benefits are no longer payable under then-current law before Jan 1, 2033?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 13.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 7.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 15/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 4.3σ — an unusually large move.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 2257d 11h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Summary
If the OASI Trust Fund reserves are depleted such that full scheduled Social Security retirement and survivors benefits are no longer payable under then-current law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2033, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.