← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXSP500WHEN-10000-27DEC31

Will the S&P 500 Index be above $10,000 before Dec 31, 2027?

4.0% implied · bid 0.0¢ · ask 8.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 4.0%, down 7.5pt over 24h, on a 8.0¢ spread.

Implied probability4.0%

Bid / ask / mid0.0¢ / 8.0¢ / 4.0¢

Spread8.0¢ (200.0%)

Change 24h-7.50pt

Change 7d-7.50pt

Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 10/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$0

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $16

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score10.0 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 17 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.5σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.51

RSI (14, hourly)17.4

Realized vol 7d2.25pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 57d 11h.

Time to resolve57d 11h

Resolution sourcemanual-review

Rules risklow (15)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

⚠ Single source

Settlement sources

For example, Google Finance

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementExpected settlement is -8760.0h after scheduled close.

Summary

If the value of the S&P 500 Index is above $10,000 at any point after Issuance and before Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Expanded rules

Not published.