← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXSP500WHEN-10000-28DEC31
Will the S&P 500 Index be above $10,000 before Dec 31, 2028?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 50.0%, flat over 24h, on a 10.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 57d 10h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
⚠ Single sourceSummary
If the value of the S&P 500 Index is above $10,000 at any point after Issuance and before Dec 31, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
Not published.