← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXSP500WHEN-10000-28JUN30
Will the S&P 500 Index be above $10,000 before Jun 30, 2028?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 19.0%, up 12.0pt over 24h, on a 8.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 10/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 41 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.5σ — a mild deviation.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 56d 9h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
⚠ Single sourceSummary
If the value of the S&P 500 Index is above $10,000 at any point after Issuance and before Jun 30, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
Not published.