← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXSTATERENAME-30-29JAN01
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a U.S. state formally changes its official name before Jan 1, 2029?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 2.0%, flat over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1161d 10h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Summary
If a U.S. state formally changes its official name after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. A state formally changes its official name when the change is finally adopted under that state's own law, such as voter approval of a constitutional amendment or enactment of a law, even if it takes effect later. Adding or removing words in the official name (for example, dropping "and Providence Plantations") counts. A newly admitted state counts only if it changes its name after full admission; the name it takes at admission does not. The following do NOT count: A proposal, resolution or amendment that still needs a further vote or signature. A rename made only by the President, the federal government or a private company (for example, an executive order, federal usage or map labels). A governor's order or agency policy that changes only the name used on documents. A nickname, motto, seal or flag.