← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXTIMEDECADE20S-30-SALT

Who will Time name as Person of the Decade?

8.4% implied · bid 7.1¢ · ask 9.8¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 7.1%, down 1.1pt over 24h, on a 2.7¢ spread.

Implied probability7.1%

Bid / ask / mid7.1¢ / 9.8¢ / 8.4¢

Spread2.7¢ (32.0%)

Change 24h-1.10pt

Change 7d-5.55pt

Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 37/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$0

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$32 / $58

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score36.5 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 25 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.23

RSI (14, hourly)24.9

Realized vol 7d1.72pt

Change 1h-0.10pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 1183d 9h.

Time to resolve1183d 9h

Resolution sourcedocumented

Rules risklow (15)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

Settlement sources

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementExpected settlement is 0.0h after scheduled close.

Summary

If Sam Altman is Time's Person of the Decade for the 2020s, then the market resolves to Yes.

Expanded rules

If Time doesn't announce a Person of the Decade before Jan 31, 2030, all markets resolve to No. This market and these products have not been endorsed by TIME. Any references to TIME, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between TIME and Kalshi.