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← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXTIMEDECADE20S-30-XJIN

Who will Time name as Person of the Decade?

10.8% implied · bid 9.7¢ · ask 12.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 12.0%, flat over 24h, on a 2.3¢ spread.

Implied probability12.0%
Bid / ask / mid9.7¢ / 12.0¢ / 10.8¢
Spread2.3¢ (21.2%)
Change 24hn/a
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 39/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$1
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$35 / $81
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score38.6 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.00
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.00pt
Change 1hn/a

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 1184d 12h.

Time to resolve1184d 12h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (15)
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

No price history yet.

Probability timeline

No history yet.

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementExpected settlement is 0.0h after scheduled close.

Summary

If Xi Jinping is Time's Person of the Decade for the 2020s, then the market resolves to Yes.

Expanded rules

If Time doesn't announce a Person of the Decade before Jan 31, 2030, all markets resolve to No. This market and these products have not been endorsed by TIME. Any references to TIME, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between TIME and Kalshi.