← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXTOPLLMGENERAL-30JAN01-BAID
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 60.0%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 8.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 10/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 18% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.2σ — normal range.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1160d 10h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Summary
If Baidu has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
Leading at any point after listing and before the deadline counts; multiple companies can resolve Yes. Artificial Analysis is used first, then Epoch AI and LiveBench under the fallback and tiebreaking rules. Preliminary or provisional scores do not count.