← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXTRADEDEFICIT-31FEB03-T700
Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $700 billion?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 93.5%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 9.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 5/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 50% to the bid (buyers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 48 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1559d 11h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
⚠ Single sourceSummary
If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2030 is strictly above $700 billion dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
The Underlying is the nominal goods and services balance on a balance-of-payments basis. It will not use the goods-only deficit, the advance goods report, the December monthly deficit, or inflation-adjusted trade data. Because the agencies generally report the balance as a negative number, the market will use the absolute size of the deficit. For example, an annual trade balance of −$800.1 billion constitutes a trade deficit of $800.1 billion. Resolution will use the first annual estimate published in the release covering December of 2030. Subsequent annual revisions will not be considered.