← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXU3MAX-30-5
How high will unemployment get before 2030?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 50.0%, flat over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability50.0%
Bid / ask / mid48.0¢ / 50.0¢ / 49.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (4.1%)
Change 24hn/a
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 52% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$4 / $28
Imbalance52% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.00
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.00pt
Change 1hn/a
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1157d 12h.
Time to resolve1157d 12h
Resolution sourcemanual-review
Rules risklow (15)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
No price history yet.
Probability timeline
No history yet.
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
⚠ Single sourceSettlement sources
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementExpected settlement is 1.6h after scheduled close.
Summary
If the U-3 unemployment rate from June 2025 to January 2030 is above 5%, the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
Not published.