← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXU3MAX-30-6
How high will unemployment get before 2030?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 38.0%, up 1.0pt over 24h, on a 6.0¢ spread.
Implied probability38.0%
Bid / ask / mid32.0¢ / 38.0¢ / 35.0¢
Spread6.0¢ (17.1%)
Change 24h+1.00pt
Change 7d-49.50pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 20/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 65% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$3
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$40 / $25
Imbalance65% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score20.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.20
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d3.01pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1157d 12h.
Time to resolve1157d 12h
Resolution sourcemanual-review
Rules risklow (15)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
⚠ Single sourceSettlement sources
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementExpected settlement is 1.6h after scheduled close.
Summary
If, from June 2025 to January 2030 the U-3 unemployment rate is above 6%, the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
Not published.