← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXU3MAX-30-9
How high will unemployment get before 2030?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 32.0%, down 12.0pt over 24h, on a 6.0¢ spread.
Implied probability32.0%
Bid / ask / mid15.0¢ / 21.0¢ / 18.0¢
Spread6.0¢ (33.3%)
Change 24h-12.00pt
Change 7d-28.00pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 20/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1 / $7
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score20.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 43 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.35
RSI (14, hourly)43.2
Realized vol 7d3.58pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1157d 12h.
Time to resolve1157d 12h
Resolution sourcemanual-review
Rules risklow (15)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
⚠ Single sourceSettlement sources
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementExpected settlement is 1.6h after scheduled close.
Summary
If, from June 2025 to January 2030 the U-3 unemployment rate is above 9%, the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
Not published.