← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXUKCOALITION-30JAN01-REFMAJ
Will Reform UK majority form the next government in the United Kingdom?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 6.1%, down 2.4pt over 24h, on a 5.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 25/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 33 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1154d 10h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
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Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Summary
If Reform UK, with Reform UK holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
A party is considered part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position in the new government. This evaluation occurs at the first official, stable formation of the government once the legislative process is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances. Confidence and supply arrangements where a party supports the government without holding cabinet positions may be included if explicitly specified in the parties description. Caretaker or interim governments appointed temporarily before formal government formation do not count for determining party status. A sole 'minority' government designation (e.g. 'Party X minority') means the relevant party is the ruling government but does not have a confidence and supply agreement with any party or a majority of seats in the parliament (or equivalent legislature). If a parties description specifies support from one or more named parties, that support is exclusive to the named parties.