← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXUKGEYEAR-30JAN01-27
Will it be confirmed that 2027 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 6.0%, down 4.0pt over 24h, on a 8.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 10/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 10 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.4σ — an unusually large move.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1161d 12h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Summary
If, after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, the claim that 2027 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred has been reported as confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
Each market's year is determined by the official polling day that actually occurs, not an announced or scheduled date that is later changed. If the official polling day for the next UK general election occurs in a year not listed, every market resolves NO.