← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXUSTAKEOVER-30-29
Will the US government take control of any AI company or project before 2029?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 33.0%, flat over 24h, on a 7.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 15/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 50% to the bid (buyers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1154d 12h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Summary
If the U.S. government has taken operational control of any private AI company or project before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
The following qualify as takeovers that trigger the Payout Criterion: The President of the United States, Congress, or any federal agency has announced or enacted legislation, executive order, or regulatory action that would result in the United States government acquiring 50% or more ownership stake in any private AI company or project The United States government has actually acquired 50% or more ownership stake in any private AI company or project through any mechanism including but not limited to: purchase, eminent domain, legislative action, or court order The United States government has taken operational control of any private AI company or project through conservatorship, receivership, or similar legal mechanism where the government directs strategic or executive decision-making regardless of equity ownership percentage A legally binding court order or executive action placing these AI operations under federal or agencies' active management A bill has become federal law specifically authorizing or mandating the nationalization or takeover of any private AI company or project, regardless of whether the acquisition has yet occurred The President issues an executive order specifically directing the acquisition, nationalization, or federal operational takeover of any private AI company or project The following do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion: Government contracts or purchases from any private AI company or project Regulatory actions that do not transfer ownership or control Antitrust breakups that do not result in government ownership Bankruptcy proceedings unless resulting in government ownership/control Government equity stakes below 50% unless accompanied by operational control State or local government actions (only federal actions qualify) Conditional announcements dependent on future events Proposed legislation that has not been enacted If the government assumes control due to an emergency (e.g., wartime powers, executive seizure), the market resolve…
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The following qualify as takeovers that trigger the Payout Criterion: The President of the United States, Congress, or any federal agency has announced or enacted legislation, executive order, or regulatory action that would result in the United States government acquiring 50% or more ownership stake in any private AI company or project The United States government has actually acquired 50% or more ownership stake in any private AI company or project through any mechanism including but not limited to: purchase, eminent domain, legislative action, or court order The United States government has taken operational control of any private AI company or project through conservatorship, receivership, or similar legal mechanism where the government directs strategic or executive decision-making regardless of equity ownership percentage A legally binding court order or executive action placing these AI operations under federal or agencies' active management A bill has become federal law specifically authorizing or mandating the nationalization or takeover of any private AI company or project, regardless of whether the acquisition has yet occurred The President issues an executive order specifically directing the acquisition, nationalization, or federal operational takeover of any private AI company or project The following do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion: Government contracts or purchases from any private AI company or project Regulatory actions that do not transfer ownership or control Antitrust breakups that do not result in government ownership Bankruptcy proceedings unless resulting in government ownership/control Government equity stakes below 50% unless accompanied by operational control State or local government actions (only federal actions qualify) Conditional announcements dependent on future events Proposed legislation that has not been enacted If the government assumes control due to an emergency (e.g., wartime powers, executive seizure), the market resolves to Yes only if such control is accompanied by language indicating ongoing federal management or ownership. Control of a single AI project within a company resolves to Yes if the government gains enforceable management over that project, and the project is independently identifiable and material (e.g., a standalone system or training pipeline, not just a subfeature).