← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXVISADEBIT-DOJ30
Will any federal court rule rules that Visa Inc. violated Section 1 or Section 2 of the Sherman Act on any claim for relief asserted by the United States?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 68.0%, down 1.0pt over 24h, on a 9.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 5/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 4% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 49 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1154d 11h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Summary
If any federal court rules that Visa Inc. violated Section 1 or Section 2 of the Sherman Act on any claim for relief asserted by the United States in United States v. Visa Inc., No. 1:24-cv-07214 (S.D.N.Y.), or any appeal of that action before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
Liability on any one of the four claims for relief the United States pleaded is enough, and partial liability counts. An order that only sets or modifies a remedy does not qualify unless it also carries the liability holding. The ruling must: Be issued by a federal court in United States v. Visa Inc., No. 1:24-cv-07214 (S.D.N.Y.), or any appeal of that action Address the matter described by the specified judgment Be issued through a written order, opinion, judgment, or decision The following do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion: The June 23, 2025 order denying Visa's motion to dismiss, or any later ruling on a motion to dismiss A consent decree, settlement, or voluntary dismissal, including a consent decree entered by the court A ruling in any other Visa antitrust matter, including the payment card interchange fee litigation Oral rulings from the bench unless reduced to a written order Tentative rulings that are not made final Administrative or scheduling orders