← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXWALESREFCALL-30JAN01-YES
Will Wales announce an independence referendum before 2030?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 25.0%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 8.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 10/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 45 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 15.9σ — an unusually large move.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1161d 10h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Summary
If Wales agrees to or announces a formal decision by the UK Government, UK Parliament, or a legally authorized Welsh authority to hold a referendum on Welsh independence after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following: Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify. The following do NOT qualify: Preliminary discussions Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances Opposition party statements Leaked documents Think-tank recommendations General aspirations without specific commitment Draft legislation without approval Regional actions (unless specified) Retraction of previously announced commitments Confirmation must come from the UK Government, UK Parliament, or a Welsh authority legally empowered to commit to holding the referendum. A binding legal instrument qualifies only if it commits to the poll; merely granting a power to call one does not qualify. A polling date is not required, and voting may occur after January 1, 2030. Party pledges, non-binding Senedd motions, consultations, requests for permission, preparations, and general statements of intent do not qualify. Announcements made before issuance do not qualify.