← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXWARMING-50
Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 70.0%, up 4.0pt over 24h, on a 4.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 30/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 15% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 58 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.8σ — an unusually large move.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 8459d 10h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Summary
If the annual global mean surface temperature anomaly has reached or exceeded +2.0°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900 average) in any calendar year before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
At least two of the Source Agencies must report that we have hit the 2.0°C threshold.