← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXWC-30-ESP
Will Spain win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 15.6%, flat over 24h, on a 0.4¢ spread.
Implied probability15.6%
Bid / ask / mid15.6¢ / 16.0¢ / 15.8¢
Spread0.4¢ (2.5%)
Change 24hn/a
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$157
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,131 / $2,283
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score49.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.00
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.00pt
Change 1hn/a
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1519d 0h.
Time to resolve1519d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (15)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
No price history yet.
Probability timeline
No history yet.
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade