← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXWC-30-ITA
Will Italy win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 4.0%, flat over 24h, on a 1.7¢ spread.
Implied probability4.0%
Bid / ask / mid2.3¢ / 4.0¢ / 3.1¢
Spread1.7¢ (54.0%)
Change 24hn/a
Change 7dn/a
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 43/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$2,343
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,588 / $530
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score43.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.00
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.00pt
Change 1hn/a
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1518d 22h.
Time to resolve1518d 22h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (15)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
No price history yet.
Probability timeline
No history yet.
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade