← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXWCQUAL-30-GER
Will Germany qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 99.6%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 7.8¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 21/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 13 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.8σ — a mild deviation.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1518d 22h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Summary
If Germany qualifies for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup main tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
Important information: This market resolves Yes if Germany officially qualifies for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup under the qualification format in effect for that tournament. Any change to the tournament format, including an expansion or reduction in the number of participating teams, will not affect resolution; this market will resolve solely based on whether Germany qualifies for the main tournament. Advancing to a later stage of qualification without securing a place in the main tournament does not count. The market will resolve based on official confirmation from FIFA or the applicable continental confederation.