← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXXISUCCESSOR-45JAN01-LQIA
Will Li Qiang become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 6.0%, up 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.9¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 49 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.7σ — a mild deviation.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 6633d 10h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
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Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Other venues
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How this settles
Summary
If Li Qiang is announced as the first new non-interim leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
The market resolves when the first new non-interim leader is officially announced by the party or credible sources. The person need not have taken office before the deadline date, only be announced as the incoming leader. Interim or acting leaders do not qualify unless they are subsequently announced as the permanent leader. If multiple persons are simultaneously announced as co-leaders, the market resolves proportionally. Leadership contests that extend beyond the deadline date without an announcement resolve to No. The announcement must come from official party channels or be confirmed by multiple credible news sources.