← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXXISUCCESSOR-45JAN01-ZLEJ
Will Zhao Leji become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 15.0%, flat over 24h, on a 5.3¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 24/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 6633d 10h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
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Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Other venues
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How this settles
Summary
If Zhao Leji is announced as the first new non-interim leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
The market resolves when the first new non-interim leader is officially announced by the party or credible sources. The person need not have taken office before the deadline date, only be announced as the incoming leader. Interim or acting leaders do not qualify unless they are subsequently announced as the permanent leader. If multiple persons are simultaneously announced as co-leaders, the market resolves proportionally. Leadership contests that extend beyond the deadline date without an announcement resolve to No. The announcement must come from official party channels or be confirmed by multiple credible news sources.