← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXYTUBESUBSISHOWSPEED-30

When will IShowSpeed reach 100 million Youtube subscribers?

77.5% implied · bid 61.0¢ · ask 94.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 69.0%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 33.0¢ spread.

Implied probability69.0%

Bid / ask / mid61.0¢ / 94.0¢ / 77.5¢

Spread33.0¢ (42.6%)

Change 24h+0.50pt

Change 7d+2.50pt

Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 13% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$0

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0

Imbalance13% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score0.0 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 100 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 8.8σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean-8.79

RSI (14, hourly)100.0

Realized vol 7d0.13pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 1154d 11h.

Time to resolve1154d 11h

Resolution sourcemanual-review

Rules risklow (15)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

⚠ Single source

Settlement sources

YouTube

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementExpected settlement is 10.0h after scheduled close.

Summary

If @IShowSpeed has at least 100,000,000 subscribers before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Expanded rules

Not published.