← Explore · Kalshi · Market USCLIMATE-2025

Will the US meet its climate goals?

10.3% implied · bid 7.7¢ · ask 12.9¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 8.0%, down 2.8pt over 24h, on a 5.2¢ spread.

Implied probability8.0%

Bid / ask / mid7.7¢ / 12.9¢ / 10.3¢

Spread5.2¢ (50.5%)

Change 24h-2.80pt

Change 7d+0.70pt

Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 24/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$48

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$34 / $77

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score24.1 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 51 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.23

RSI (14, hourly)51.0

Realized vol 7d2.08pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 1518d 12h.

Time to resolve1518d 12h

Resolution sourcemanual-review

Rules risklow (15)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

⚠ Single source

Settlement sources

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementExpected settlement is 0.0h after scheduled close.

Summary

If the US has 4909.9 million metric tonnes of CO2 emissions or fewer in a year by 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.

Expanded rules

Not published.